Getting too close to call?

To quote from Mike Smithson today at Political Betting:

"Information has been leaked to me this afternoon about the YouGov Lib Dem members poll which has been the subject of much speculation.

My informant tells me that the survey was commissioned by a wealthy backer of Ming Campbell who is also a big donor and he told me his name.

I was given the figures of Campbell 40%: Huhne 34% and Hughes 24% on first preferences. My information is that while the Hughes second preferences would split in Huhne’s favour they do not split enough for him to win."

I don't trust leaked polls. But it makes you wonder - how close does the result have to be to allow a recount?

UPDATE: THESE FIGURES HAVE NOW BEEN OFFICIALLY DENIED BY YOUGOV.

Why I'm glad Chris is standing - even if he doesn't win (though I hope he does!)

The Reasons for Voting For Chris

Someone Else's View

I saw this on Political Betting tonight, gives an interesting view of Chris Huhne:


Just got back from the Cardiff hustings. My position before going was undecided, but tending to put Hughes at 3 because of the poor handling and judgement of the last few weeks. The format of the evening was speeches then questions.

Simon was first, and as usual he was passionate and spoke without notes. He was coherent too. Chris spoke well, and was not monotonous. I had never heard him speak before and was pleasently surprised as I I have heard some people say “boring”. Content was good, but after Simon, his use of notes was noticeable. Ming was good for content, also used notes a bit, but has a bad throat and didnt project. Round 1 goes Hughes 3 points, Huhne 2 points, Campbell 1 point.

For questions, all spoke without notes, and all spoke with passion. Simon however, drifted at times - as he can when unscripted. Ming’s content was good, but no more. Chris really excelled here; content was great, and when not reading from notes he projects well and the passion comes ever well. Round 2 goes Huhne 3 points, then the other two tie for 1.5 points.

Overall I make that:
Huhne: 5
Hughes: 3.5
Campbell 2.5

Still not fully decided, but I’m tending to Huhne. I would be content with any as leader though, they all showed themselves to be capeable.
Mark
by Mark February 6th, 2006 at 11:24 pm

But we won't know until ....

So now we have 5 people dead in Afghanistan during protests against the Danish cartoons.
I've looked at an interesting debate at altmuslim.com, for example:

I'm quite troubled over the cartoon controversy in Denmark, not because of the cartoons themselves, which I agree are offensive, but rather, because of the absurd overreaction of Muslims worldwide. We haven't learned from the Rushdie affair - this is yet another instance where we've gone out of our way to make ourselves look stupid.

and

And as far as cartoons doing little harm, you should reflect on the power of imagery. What image comes to most people's mind when Jesus is mention. Proably a white man with long hair or whatever most people have seen. These images disgrace the dignity of the Prophet and will be the first thing non-Muslims visualize when they hear his name.

For once I agree with Oliver Kamm:
There is a common view that, while publication of the original cartoons was justified, their emergence as a cause of friction entails that they should not be republished. As Parris notes, this has it the wrong way round. The cartoons are indifferent, crude and unfunny, and ought not to have found editorial space when submitted. Now that they have caused widespread offence, it is imperative that they be widely published and circulated.

But I also agree with Lib Dem MEP Sajjad Karim:

"Muslims should have no issue with the Danish people as a whole - one of the most open and tolerant societies in the world. I would urge all sides now to climb down and treat this as a hard lesson in building inter-cultural ties."

I think it was right for newspapers - and bloggers - to have republished the cartoons. But newspapers can't go on republishing for ever - they are ephemeral productions. It also may be time for the images to disappear from some of the internet - if they are in a newspaper for one day, they don't need to be on a website for months or years. But they should be there somewhere, so that people can see them for themselves.
I accept that millions of people have been greatly , dreadfully, upset by these cartoons, but that's because what was a local issue in Denmark (not exactly the centre of the Islamic world) has been poisoned by the deliberate addition of three 'fake' cartoons and inflamed by people in the Middle East with a remarkable ability to procure Danish flags at short notice. It's intimidation and bullying of free speech in Europe.
Some may think it has been successful intimidation. I dearly hope not. There's no need to 'test the waters' for the sake of it. But we won't know if the intimidation has worked until someone has a good reason to produce something else that is acceptable by Western standards but not to Middle Eastern flagburners.

My Turn

By Gracious Command of John Bright's Body


7 things to do before I die:

1. Visit Sharon.
2. Write a book
3. Have a Italian meal with the family - in Italy
4. See a Test Match
5. See a whale
6. Go to Lesbos again - this time in the spring
7. Celebrate the fourth millenium.

7 things I cannot do:

1. Whistle
2. Sing
3. Play a musical instrument
4. Pronounce the 'sh' sound properly, amongst others.
5. Go 24 hours without sleep.
6. Make my tongue curl upwards.
7. Stay tidy for more than , oh, 1 hour

7 things that I like about my county

1. Rayleigh's wide High Street, the church bells. - and the tasty bacon-topped pork pies at Byford's. The election day snack of choice for both Liberal Democrats and Conservatives.
2. Hyde Hall Gardens - up on a hill - and their excellent restaurant - Gooseberry Wine, mmm...
3. The unfashionable Southend United - now top of League 1 , as it happens
4. The archetypal English village of Finchingfield - where I took my wife on our first date. It worked for us....
5. Some favourite pubs - such as the Bull in Hockley, the Worlds End in Tilbury, and the Barge and the Hawk in Battlesbridge.
6. Hockley Woods
7. Darwin's Beagle - finally expired near Paglesham?

7 things I often say:

1. “Give me five minutes"
2. “I said, five minutes "
3. “Well , five more minutes then"
4. “Good morning, sorry to bother you, but I'm one of your local councillors..."
5. “No, I didn't watch that"
6. “What time is dinner?"
7. “Have you got a spare agenda?"

7 books that I love re-reading:

1. A Civil Campaign - Lois McMaster Bujold
2. Surely You're Joking Mr Feynmann - Richard Feynmann
3. The Mote in God's Eye - Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle
4. City of Illusions - Ursula Le Guin
5. The Stainless Steel Rat for President - Harry Harrison
6. Strong Poison - Dorothy L Sayers
7. Platinum Blues - William Deverall

7 movies I watch over and over again (well, more than once):

1. A Matter of Life and Death
2. Casablanca
3. Dave
4. Groundhog Day
5. Frequency (can bring me and another male friend to tears)
6. Witness
7. Ivan Vasilevich Changes Professions (in Russian - the USSR's closer approach to Monty Python)

It's too late to tag people now, but here's 7 more blogger-related things I'd like to do in say the next 7 years:

1. Watch a Livingston match with Stephen Glenn
2. See Peter Black in action in the Siambr.
3. Hear Kim Ayres play the mandolin. Or the bouzoki. Or the guitar.
4. Pop in to Roger Owen Green in his library in Albany
5. Have lunch with Daniel Drezner.
6. Find time to get to James Graham's Liberal Drinks if he does another one
7. Have a peep a Jonathan Calder's bookshelves. I suspect they are impressive...

Huhnes's afraid of Chris Huhne?

Well, the campaign continues apace. I've even bought a Huhne T-Shirt from Ryan's site!

But to write on a more serious level, the contest still seems to be a close one. Chris's best chance is to edge Simon Hughes into third place, and then get enough of Simon's supporter's second preferences to win by what would probably be a narrow margin.

A lot of the discussion during the campaign has been on which of our candidates would do best in warding off the challenge from a resurgent Tory party - and most say it would either be Huhne or Campbell.

But there's the other side of the coin - which candidate or candidates would Labour fear most? Who is the candidate that could really give Gordon Brown a hard time?

Warning: this post may offend.

I think the first TV I saw that could be classed as possibly offensive to a religious group was Me Mammy

This was back in the late 60s . It featured Milo O'Shea an Irishman in the UK, frequently frustrated by his mother's interference in his life. It also cocked a snook at the Catholic Church - I dimly remember one episode where they were playing a (board game called Popeopoly. Of course , after nearly 40 years I only remember this show because it was very funny. (As an aside, Milo played Durand Durand in Barbarella , after which character the group Duran Duran were named)



Then there was one of the all time great comedians Dave Allen:

A man goes to heaven, and St Peter shows him around. They go past one room, and the man asks: "Who are all those people in there?" "They are the Methodists," says St Peter. They pass another room, and the man asks the same question. "They are the Anglicans," says St Peter. As they're approaching the next room, St Peter says: "Take your shoes off and tiptoe by as quietly as you can." "Why, who's in there?" asks the man. "The Catholics," says St Peter, "and they think that they're the only ones up here." ... and that was one of his weaker jokes. A very funny, very gifted man.


and also Not the Nine O'Clock , with their great song lampooning Ayatollah Khomenei. I still remember some of the lyrics without looking them up;




There's a man in Iran,
That I can't resist
Most revered, kind of weird,
Got this chick in a twist
Ayatollah, Khomenei closer
And I will fall for your charms...


Then there was the Life of Brian. "The greatest work of religious skepticism ever put on the screen ". A very funny film, lampooning religion, Jesus, stammerers and members of fringe political parties. I liked it, and I had a pretty embarassing stammer then,




The only time I felt that something was so offensive in a religious connection that it should be discouraged from taking place was as a student, visiting Lewes in Sussex on Bonfire Night. In this town they celebrate November 5th in a big way, with bonfire societies preparing special displays , some maintaining the old anti-catholic tradition. Seeing a crowd of thousands yelling "Burn the Pope! Burn the Pope!" as an effigy of the Pope was thrown onto a bonfire was something I found quite chilling. Even if this case, it was more the burning of an individual than any mocking of a religion that I disliked. But if I was a Catholic I think I would have felt threatened by that atmosphere .(I've no objections to bonfires, it's burning people in effigy that I dislike, and back in the late 70s the impression was that they were burning the contemporary Pope , not a historic figure).

Which brings me to recent events. It's great that the government was defeated last night over the incitement to religious hatred bill, but what's happening over the Danish cartoons , which I had written about a while ago, should really concern us. Freedom under the law needs to be freedom in real lfe.

I've no doubt that depicting Muhammed is offensive to a lot of people.But I believe in the freedom of speech, within limits, and these cartoons lie well inside the limits of acceptable, legal behaviour in a modern liberal democracy.

We should have the right to go through life without feeling threatened , but we don't have the right to go through life without being offended. Not me, not you, not anyone. I don't like offending people but occasionally we have to demonstrate our right to freedom of comment even if we know it will cause some offense.

Update: there is very comprehensive info on Wikipedia

An interesting approach to the religious /secular divide

So this chap in Chicago goes on Ebay and says I'm an atheist, but for each $10 I will ....

(found via Marginal Revolution)

... and this chap's own blog is here

The Rowan and Evan Laugh-In

Evan and Rowan were very concerned: "The Government still wants the legislation to cover religiously-offensive insults, even though comedians fear this could lead to censorship – even self-imposed censorship – of any jokes ridiculing religion.

Rowan Atkinson, who has led the campaign against the planned law, said ‘I am deeply concerned for all performers and entertainers, because the climate in which we work will be very different if the government gets its way.’

Liberal Democrat human rights spokesman Evan Harris added the new law would create a ‘chilling effect that would stifle free expression’ ".

But it's been a GREAT night for freedom of speech: " The government suffered a shock double defeat tonight over its plans to combat religious hatred.
In a humiliating blow to Mr Blair's authority, MPs voted by 288 to 278, majority 10, to back a key Lords amendment to the Racial and Religious Hatred Bill.

In a second vote, MPs voted by 283 votes to 282, a majority of one, to back a second key Lords amendment to the bill. The result was greeted by loud cheers from the Tory benches and cries of "resign!" ".

Serves him right ha ha ha : "Analysis of the division list showed the prime minister voted in the first division but not in the second, which was lost by one vote."

I'm very pleased. And well done Mark Oaten. As Sandra Gidley blogged (very promptly):
The second vote was won by a majority of one so it's a good thing that the Member for Winchester turned up and voted appropriately.

I'm a Democrat!

So I'm a Democrat (just!) ... Thats a relief - always thought I was.

I found this test thanks to Femme de Resistance

You are a Social Liberal (60% permissive) and an... Economic Liberal (20% permissive) You are best described as a: Democrat Link: The Politics Test on Ok Cupid Also: The OkCupid Dating Persona Test

A friend's thoughts on Huhne

I had an email yesterday from a Lib Dem friend (not the one in my previous post!) who had the following thoughts - not simply pro-Chris Huhne, but highlighting how important environmental and resouces issues are, and why it's a good thing that Chris is focussing on them:

I was looking at various leadership campaign sites and I came across your blog. I have also opted for Chris Huhne, not on the basis of the scandals but because I view it as I would if recruiting Chief Executive for a large business. On this basis I believe Huhne is the best candidate with experience of the press, economics, business leadership and working with Parliamentary Committees, albeit in the EU, because this history leaves a whole trail of experience, contacts and understanding how the system works. I believe the future will involve much that will be about the environment and the economics related to that.

On a related subject. I was talking to someone who has recently come back from Oil installation safety work in Saudi Arabia. He was saying that they are pumping sea water into the ground to keep the oil pressure up but they are now seeing sea water with the oil and he believes the reserves may be only 30% of what is claimed. If this is so then we may have major environmental and energy concerns quicker than is generally believed because Saudi is relied on by the West to change their output to keep the price and supply steady.

Friends Reunited

Becoming a Blogger4Chris has given me one unexpected pleasure. One of my former colleagues on Rochford DC saw me on the Huhne website and has got in contact with me again.

Trevor Powell succeeded me as our group leader back in the 90s before work took him away to Suffolk. He and and his wife Nita are now considerably further north, running a bed and breakfast in Avoch, Ross-Shire! Trevor is still active as a Lib Dem , being constituency secretary in Charles Kennedy's constituency...

For anyone looking for a Lib Dem B&B for 18 pounds per person per night, have a look at their website .

What idiot wants a "pacy news briefing" at 5.30 am?

I work at funny hours. I think Radio 2 is best between midnight and 6 am and that Up All Night on Five Live is pretty decent as well.

And I'm annoyed with Radio 4 for wanting to scrap the UK Theme at 5.30 a.m. to allow a "pacy news briefing". So I've signed the petition to keep it.

Baffled? Always asleep at 5.30 am?

See the campaign website here.

See the Wikipedia entry here

See the BBC report here

Maybe I'm a conservative with a small c in the small hours.

Sorry, Simon

According to the BBC

Lib Dem leadership contender Simon Hughes has said the way he has handled media pressure after admitting gay relationships is a mark of his courage.

He said it showed "he was not afraid of dealing with things" - a quality "which might be a leadership criterion".

Sorry Simon, I'm sure it's been a stressful time for you, but the way that you've handled this , especially that you told the Telegraph that you weren't gay, doesn't boost your leadership credentials. Some folks from my neck of the woods - who voted for you last time, and who were supporting you this time - are deeply disappointed.

I agree with Niles:

Firstly anyone who has sex with men AND women ISN’T, strictly speaking, gay. But there’s no way he should have said what he said when he says he wasn’t gay. It’s just obvious he was setting himself up for this.

.. except that I would add that he was not only setting himself up, but his supporters and the whole party as well.

I expect to be in the Lib Dems until I die - and as I'm 47 , hopefully that's a long way off. Hopefully too, this week is a low point. But with the fun and games of the last couple of months I'm not a happy bunny right now.