To quote from Mike Smithson today at Political Betting:
"Information has been leaked to me this afternoon about the YouGov Lib Dem members poll which has been the subject of much speculation.
My informant tells me that the survey was commissioned by a wealthy backer of Ming Campbell who is also a big donor and he told me his name.
I was given the figures of Campbell 40%: Huhne 34% and Hughes 24% on first preferences. My information is that while the Hughes second preferences would split in Huhne’s favour they do not split enough for him to win."
I don't trust leaked polls. But it makes you wonder - how close does the result have to be to allow a recount?
UPDATE: THESE FIGURES HAVE NOW BEEN OFFICIALLY DENIED BY YOUGOV.